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Modernising with heat pumps
1/2 - Technically feasible and ecologically smart
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Zero emissions by 2050
Heat pumps have long been the first choice for new buildings. But not yet for refurbishment. It is becoming ever clearer though that heat pumps are also reliable, environmentally friendly and energy-efficient in older buildings.
The EU wants a gradual decarbonisation. Net greenhouse gas emissions are to come down by at least 55 per cent by 2030, measured against the reference year 1990. That is quite ambitious. To achieve the reduction target, savings must be doubled in the next eight years.
Emissions are then to fall to zero by 2050. In the building sector, the existing housing stock must become more energy-efficient, less CO2-intensive and more sustainable. After all, in order to achieve the emissions target for 2030 alone, it is necessary to reduce greenhouse gases from buildings by 60 per cent, bring down their energy consumption by 14 per cent and reduce energy consumption for heating and cooling by 18 per cent. The aim is to achieve this by installing as many heat pumps as possible, which are operated on the basis of renewable energy from the environment and green electricity.
The heat pump market is already growing throughout Europe. By 2030, 40 per cent of all residential buildings and about 65 per cent of all commercial buildings will be heated with electricity. Most of these buildings will then use heat pump systems.
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Dynamic growth for years
It took ten years for the number of heat pumps installed in Europe to double from an initial 800,000 units to 1.6 million units. Then, in recent years, sales volume has accelerated sharply. No other technology is growing faster than heat pump technology.
In Europe, the heat pump market is mainly driven by the Scandinavian countries and the large markets in Central Europe. The European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) forecasts a prospective annual sales volume of around 6.8 million heat pump units in Europe. This does not seem unrealistic with an actual 1.62 million heat pumps sold in 2020, a new sales record – despite the many challenges in material procurement and throughout the supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of heat pumps installed throughout Europe today is around 15 million units.
Europe trailing behind Asia and the US
China, Japan and the US account for the largest share of global heat pump sales. According to figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA), around 80 per cent of new heat pumps were installed in these three countries. The remaining 20 per cent of demand comes from Europe. However, the analysis includes both water- and air-led distribution systems. In Asia, air-led systems dominate. In Central Europe and Scandinavia, waterled systems, which can transport more thermal energy, are used more often for space heating.
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Subsidies as a booster
Statutory regulations and subsidies are accelerating growth in the heat pump market. Heat pumps are also gaining in importance in the United Kingdom, which has a strong gas market even in the new construction sector. The British government has launched market incentive programmes and subsidises the replacement of old heating appliances if they are exchanged for heat pumps.
Germany is also focusing on promoting heating technology based on renewable energies – including heat pumps. By the end of 2021, funds of over €11 billion were available in Germany for energy-efficient building renovation – a record figure. €9.5 billion are earmarked for the 2022 financial year.
Heat pumps in France, Germany and the United States
A look at the countries
The heat pump is gaining in importance across national borders. In France, heat pumps now account for a quarter of the total heating market. In Germany, the number reaches 15 per cent. Its share of the British heating market is currently still below ten per cent. One common feature, however, is the great market potential for heat pumps in the renovation of existing buildings.
France has cheap electricity. The country relies on nuclear power for 70 per cent of its supply. This makes the electric heat pump an economically very attractive solution for French consumers. In Germany and in the UK, on the other hand, the price of electricity is much higher. Electricity is partly imported from abroad. And there are dark periods – times when no green electricity can be produced because of a lack of wind and sunshine. A look at the heat pump-strong Scandinavian countries also shows that cheaper electricity makes heat pumps attractive. Today, almost one million houses in Sweden alone are equipped with heat pumps. Electricity is not only less expensive than in many other European countries, but it is also largely generated from wind and hydroelectric power.
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